Winning conditions. That’s the term used in war rooms to decided what stars need to line up to ensure the candidate or party needs to win an election. It does not matter if we are talking about Federal, Municipal or Provincial election.
A close race, as it stands, McGuinty and Hudak are in a virtual tie. This is THE best case scenario for McGuinty’s team. Follow this logic:
If McGuinty was getting blown out of the water in the polls, more than double the margin of error of the poll, then soft left support would move to the NDP. The reason, the soft left, the ones who go between the two, have no reason to vote for the loser because it is likely a PC Win, so might as well vote for what you want. Benefit for the PC’s as the left will be split between the Liberals and NDP. Losers: Liberals
If McGuinty and Hudak are in a tie, which means the difference between the two are less than the margin of error of the poll, the soft left will move to the Liberals to prevent Hudak winning. Benefit for the Liberals as the left will solidify to block the PC’s from winning. Losers: NDP
So in the end, Hudak just needs to keep messing up how he has been, and McGuinty has to cause no controversy, no issues and do basically nothing to win.