In an Ipsos poll published Tuesday October 4th and seen on GlobalToronto.com, it placed McGuinty in a 10 point lead over the Tim Hudak PC party. This spells a Liberal MAJORITY for Ontario, but fear not Ontarians for we shall not have to live under the provincial rules of McGuinty for long.
I have… a theory. I have been pretty good on election theories in the last five years. I did predict that McGuinty would win again in 2007. I predicted a Harper minority in 2006 and 2008. I did say Harper minority in 2011 and he got a majority. I did predict Curly would get a majority in the last Quebec election and I predicted Allison Redford winning the leadership race in Alberta and Christy Clark in BC.
So here’s my theory: Dalton McGuinty for Prime Minister. Not only will Ontarians get the warm and fuzzy feeling of living under McGuinty rule, the rest of the country can too.
McGuinty has been leader of the Ontario Liberals since 1996. His campaign was backed in part by federal Liberal John Manley, a Chretien Loyalist. McGuinty has employed Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella for two of his last three campaigns to run the war room. Kinsella is a Chretien Loyalist through and through.
If, and it’s looking like a smaller if that it was in August, McGuinty can win a three-peat provincially, he will be in THE strongest position of any of the possible candidates for the Federal Liberal Leadership. McGuinty is a moderate, playing to the center. Federal Liberals know Kinsella can win campaigns, and McGuinty is proof of that. A McGuinty win provincially gives them a real shot at going federally where the Liberals really need someone who can win. Trudeau would be ok, but his father casts a large shadow for him to live up to. There is no one else really to consider for the leadership, in part because all the usual jokers are still paying off their bills from 2006.
Furthermore, if McGuinty wins and keeps 60+ seats, that will set him up in areas the Federal Liberals need most, big cities. McGuinty is neutral in Quebec, he has no baggage there. Depending on who the NDP elect as their new leader, McGuinty as Federal Liberal Leader could make inroads by being a rejuvenated Liberal, Federal option to the NDP or Tories. I doubt the Fed NDP will do as well as they did in 2011. If McGuinty could take 60 seats in Ontario and 30-40 in Quebec, he’s well on the way to a minority if not a majority government as Federal Liberal Leader. As a moderate, Atlantic Liberals would find him somewhat appealing. The West like the Alberta PC’s and the Manitoba NDP, both are in the center politically speaking.
A three-peat for McGuinty will prove to those in the Liberal hierarchy that he’s a winner. What does one do when they reach the top of one ladder, they get off and climb the next.