Ever look at a situation and think – there is no other plausible outcome but what’s right in front of us. I thought of this a lot this week after seeing the federal Liberal budget drop, and all the opposition responses. This time next year, reporters will start preparing the political obituaries for the nearly inevitable defeat of Justin Trudeau in the Fall 2025 federal election, and the rise of Pierre Poilievre as the next Prime Minister. I say nearly because Trudeau could go for a walk in the snow, or sand, and step down as leader. Or Poilievre could stumble on his near record lead in the polls and bottle it. I suspect not, but who would have thought a prime minister could have old photos of himself in black face get published and be re-elected?
The real question will be, is it a Poilievre minority, or majority government? Personally I like minority governments regardless of the party as it make life more interesting, and it adds a check-and-balance to the political process. The party in power has to draw in an accomplice to get their “agenda” passed. The Liberals currently have a contracted dance card with the NDP. The Harper government had to strike deals with different parties when it was in power. Based on recent governments, I am starting to think that maybe a government should almost have to serve once as a minority government before being allowed to govern with a majority. Call it a trial run, or a warranty. We the people will give you some rope, go about your business, but don’t mess up too much. Check back in a couple years and maybe you can have the whole spool with a majority. Lather, rinse, repeat.
I don’t have a preference. Red or blue, orange or green, hot pink or grey. It doesn’t really matter.
All new governments, regardless of jurisdiction, preoccupy themselves with spending the first 18 months in power undoing all the bad shit their predecessors did anyways. Tack on a year to do their own thing, and we’re back at the polls.
Growing up I always considered myself a red tory. Those are endangered species now. As I age, I find I am a centrist. Some aren’t. They like the way the pendulum swings, further and further to one side or the other.
Still, looking at what this government and crop of leaders are doing, it’s difficult to see a way back for them to salvage another term in office – minority or majority. Red or blue – same as it ever was.
Three things…
Something to watch
One of my favourite action movies is Ronin. The movie stars Robert De Niro and Jean Reno, has a great ensemble cast, and one of the best car chase scenes I’ve seen. Forget the Fast and the Furious franchise with its implausible physics and nonsensical story lines. Ronin has mystery, intrigue, double crosses, spy-craft, and a few car chases. Here’s the best one.
Something to read
In December 2021, a local developer was arrested in an international yacht fraud and forgery scheme. Since then, I have followed the story through the courts and this week reported on the sentencing. It’s interesting covering court, not something I have done a lot in my career. I have a lot of respect for journalists who do cover the court process day-in, and day-out. Here’s my reporting – enjoy.
Something to listen to
Nothing much says 80s music as the Talking Heads… Same as it ever was…
Final word
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.” – Mark Twain