Political best before dates should be heeded

A friend once told me that expiry dates were a “recommendation”. Weeks later, that same friend told me he had been unwell due to eating something expired. He heeded those expiry date “suggestions” more from that point on. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency says expiry dates on food is about promoting food safety. I’ve often wondered if we need expiry dates on our politicians. If not expiry dates, not-so-subtle hints that it’s time to go.

If the political pollsters are to believed, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has a best before date of October 20, 2025. All the major federal polling firms have Trudeau’s Liberals trailing Pierre Poiliever’s Conservatives by 15 to 19 points. It is clear to even the least astute observer that should Justin Trudeau remain Liberal leader, that he and his party will face a political drubbing of epic proportions. Not quite Kim Campbell’s election failure in 1993, but pretty close.

Pollster seat projections show the Liberals may lose 85 seats, while the Conservatives may gain over 100 seats in the next election. And if you needed more signs that point to that best before date for Trudeau, look no further to personal popularity ratings. Only 28 per cent of those surveyed by Angus Reid were favourable towards Trudeau. His personal popularity has dropped by more than half in the nearly nine years he has been in government.

Trudeau doesn’t seem phased by the polls being continuously in the toilet. “I don’t put a lot of stock into polls,” he told the CBC nine years ago before becoming Prime Minister. “If I’d paid too much attention to polls, I probably would’ve spent September golfing or canoeing instead of campaigning.” He may not put a lot of stock in polls, but it may be time for him to put a little stock into them.

Yes, it’s time to go Prime Minister.

Political tradition in the modern era of Canadian politics has seen prime ministers last about 9 years. Jean Chretien served as Prime Minister for just over 10 years, but he chose to jump before being pushed out of office by Paul Martin. That worked well for Chretien, but not Martin.

Brian Mulroney almost made it to nine years, however he decided to leave on his own accord as well. He stuck his growing unpopularity on Campbell.

Stephen Harper was nine years, then he was voted out of office because he did not heed the nine-year unwritten rule and tried to test the ballot box one last time.

Nine years is a good number to hold on to power for. It’s almost two full terms in office if elected with a majority. Or it’s good for three terms if two are minority governments. Both Harper and Trudeau have had that.

There’s another reason why nine years is a good number – how much time do you need to do what you want? Parties are elected on platforms, with the hope that the platform becomes legislation. That legislation is passed into law, things change – lather, rinse, repeat. Along the way, governments face whatever challenges pop up in front of them, and those are dealt with. Once everything in the platform is accomplished, we have another election. That’s the theory. In practice, political platforms have become shopping carts of empty promises that are quickly discarded the day after the ballots have been counted. Party leaders toss into those carts everything they can to appeal to voters, even if it goes against their own political ethos – just say or do what you need to to get elected because none of it matters after.

After nearly nine years, how much more is there for the Prime Minister to accomplish? Comparing three party platforms to what has been accomplished – a lot. Maybe that also is a sign that it’s time to go. If you have three government terms to get your party’s platform accomplished and haven’t – where does the failure lie?

Politics is much like sports. The metaphors and even some of the lessons from the “game” are as applicable on the soccer pitch or in the House of Commons. Many professional sports team coaches will trade players whose popularity and/or ego exceeds the team. Team sports is about winning, and if an ego distracts from that, out you go. But how does that work when the ego in the way of your success is also the manager? The team owners step in.

At what point does someone in the Liberal Party look for a snowy day forecast and ask the Prime Minister if he wants to take a walk in the snow like his father did? Maybe that talk has already happened and we are where we are anyways?

Should Trudeau stay the course and remain leader through to the next election, there is little chance he will win. The challenge for any party going against him is also in the polling data though.

Recent legislation that established a dental care and started a pharma care program, along with the national subsidized daycare program are attractive to many Canadians. Pollsters have discovered that many of those asked do not want to see those programs disappear with a change in government.

Any party that pledges to cut those programs will be in for a rude awakening. Maybe that’s what the current Prime Minister is banking on – but it’s a hell of a gamble for your political future.

Again, that kind of political judgement is another sign that it’s time to move on. Taking large gambles on the national stage is not the hallmark of good leadership.

Best before dates, even if they are just a “recommendation” do serve a purpose. If nothing else they are a reminder that every day you venture past that “suggestion” is tempting fate. Many times it is better to heed the date.

This column was originally published in the June 12, 2024 print edition of The Morrisburg Leader.