Wanderings – Getting started is that much more difficult

Owning your own home is security for your family. The permanence of home ownership, the ability to get on that property ladder, is so important for many Canadians. Sadly, it has never been so expensive — and therefore more difficult — than it is right now. That is not just a political talking point. It is from the latest statistics reported by the Missing Middle Initiative.

“New starter homes are now twice as expensive, relative to income, as in 2004,” the headline read. “Starter homes have detached from middle-class incomes.”

The MMI is a group within the University of Ottawa’s Institute of the Environment. Founded by Dr. Mike Moffatt, a Canadian economist, the group’s mission is to “revive Canada’s urban middle class.” MMI follows trends and reports on housing and economics in Canada. Frankly, the reports from MMI are downright depressing, including the above one from February.

The gulf between the middle class and buying a first home is growing. According to MMI, young dual-earning incomes grew by 76 per cent between 2004 and 2025. Meanwhile, new-home prices on the lower end of the market have increased by 265 per cent on average, says MMI.

This is not just a Toronto or an Ottawa problem. Cities like London, Kingston, and St. Catharines are less affordable. In comparison, according to MMI, starter homes in those cities are more expensive than it was in 2004 to buy a starter home in Vancouver.

While some of the home price issues can be blamed on the large-scale madness that happened during the pandemic, the trend was already baked into the equation. Stagnant low-interest rates made carrying a larger mortgage more affordable, driving up prices. MMI says this growth rate began to take off in the 2016–19 years.

Not living in large cities does not mean you are immune to these price and affordability issues. A home that listed for $249,000 in 2018 was just listed in my village for $669,000, and I know from having looked at it both times — little if anything has been done to the house. I also know that my own income — and I am on the property ladder already -— has not increased anywhere near that amount in the same period of time.

My worries in all this is not for myself, but for my children. The youngest is just finishing up post-secondary this year. All four will be or already are young adults navigating this, with a proverbial 800-pound weight tipping the scales against them. How will my kids be able to afford a home of their own at some point, when and if they want to start their own family? Unless they win the Lotto 6/49, it is going to be a challenge.

But where are the homes? A few years back, Ontario Premier Doug Ford made a pledge to build 1.5 million homes — that campaign promise is a bust so far. Ford blames municipalities for their development charges, fees, and other costs. He is not wrong on this, but as I have written before, development charge legislation is a provincial matter and he could zero them out by passing legislation next week if he wanted to. The buck stops with him on that straw man.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he wanted more homes built. The Build Canada Homes crown corporation is tasked with converting underused federal properties into new homes for people. That initiative is part of a long game, like Ford’s pledge for building 1.5 million new homes by 2031. It looks nice at a distance, but there is little substance to it so far. Reducing the immigration inflow has helped relieve some pressure on the system, but that has consequences on its own.

Building materials are a cost issue. One could think that if Canada’s forestry sector is getting helping hand outs during the trade uncertainty with the United States, that the price of a 2×4 might be discounted a bit.  No discounts were found when I last went to the building centre.

According to MMI, without serious policy changes, it is going to take a few decades for things to right themselves. Sadly, those at that think tank may be right. I will offer some advice as well: lower your expectations. Getting started is more difficult, and it will be for a long while.

This column was originally published in the March 11, 2026 print edition of The Morrisburg Leader.