Welcome to the 2025 provincial election period. Many speculated since last fall that we were heading towards an Ontario provincial election. The signs have all been there for the last six months. The increase in talking head announcements, re-announcing money already announced, a taxpayer rebate cheque, and a fantastic amount of new programs or spending on everything from health care to education to energy. So now we are here – now what?
The constant drone from US President Donald Trump threatening a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods is the perfect foil for Ford’s election call. Ford already has assumed the mantel of the modern day “Captain Canada” in coralling the Canadian response to that tariff threat. Now Ford says he needs a “strong mandate” in the province to guide us through the economic turmoil and protect all our jobs. How patriotic of Ford.
This election was planned long before the election of Trump and his threats of a reign of tariffs.
Since the 1930s, there has been a pattern in federal elections and provincial elections in Ontario. Rarely are the same parties in power at the same time. When the party changes from red to blue in the House of Commons, Ontario voters tend to flip the script in Queen’s Park. Ford leads the blue faction provincially now, and given the long-standing malaise of Canadian voters towards the red team in the House of Commons, that flip is set to occur whenever we have a national election.
Ford may be playing up the Team Ontario/Team Canada – rah, rah, save our jobs and economy cheers but make no mistake, this election is about political opportunism.
Under the provincial fixed election date legislation, Ontario voters were set to go to the polls in June 2026. The federal election is set to happen no later than October this year. Unless Pierre Poilievre channels the ghosts of epic election fumbles like Tim Hudak and John Tory did, the Conservatives will form the next federal government. We potentially could be more than a year into a federal blue government when Ford is scheduled to go to the polls. This is why Ford wants to go to the provincial polls now. Stating the reason for this election is that he needs a “strong mandate” is disingenuous – he already has a strong mandate.
Ford won the 2022 provincial election, gaining seven seats from his tally in 2018. Sure, voter turnout in the 2022 election was an all-time low of 44 per cent, but the options presented from all parties lacked anything for people to get excited about. Irrespective of this, Ford has a strong mandate already with about two-thirds of the seats at Queen’s Park. Why not govern, steer the good ship Ontario through the troubled waters of Trump’s tariffs – claim victory and go to the polls as scheduled in June 2026? Political opportunism of course.
Ford is in complete control of his own political fate calling an election early. The NDP and Liberals remain slow in nominating candidates so they will be scrambling in the first two weeks of the campaign. In ridings like Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, anyone running against Ford’s Progressive Conservatives has an Everest-like mountain to climb, making it difficult to attract candidates to be sacrificial lamb. The riding skews blue due to the SDG portion of the riding. It would take a strong candidate to upset that. It has happened, but not since 2011.
Early pollsters are already predicting Ford to increase his seat count to 100 – beating former-Liberal Premier David Peterson’s 95-seat win in 1987. Ford would be a fool not to call an election when the cards are all in his favour – but let’s call a spade a spade. This is not an election to protect against Trump’s tariff tantrums – it is political opportunism, pure and simple.
This column was originally published in the January 29, 2025 print edition of the Morrisburg Leader.
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