What is going on in Alberta? More importantly, what on earth is Alberta Premier Danielle Smith thinking? Alberta voters will now have the opportunity to decide if they want to stay in Canada or have a binding referendum on separation.
Recently, an Alberta court struck down a petition in that province that would have added a separation question to an already planned referendum on other matters. That court ruled that the question of separation infringed on Indigenous treaty rights. Unhappy to have the courts be the final say, Smith announced that she wanted to settle the matter once and for all by adding her own separation referendum. Again, what is she thinking?
The United Conservative Party, which Smith has led since 2022, is an amalgam of the former Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties. Smith was Wildrose leader at one point, too. While the Wildrose Party was not a separatist party, it was more conservative than the PCs. There has to be some explanation for why the leader of the Alberta government would openly choose to put some form of separatism on the ballot in that province this fall.
Smith has been premier since 2023, and while her party has maintained a double-digit lead in the polls over the NDP opposition, her approval ratings are under 50 per cent. Smith has recently seen an uptick in her personal popularity, but that is only recent. Health care, education, and jobs remain key issues in Alberta, as does the economy as a whole. The province has fixed election dates, going to the polls next in October 2027. Ding! There’s part of the answer.
Since Mark Carney’s election as prime minister a year ago, and the upheaval in global markets thanks to the poor voting choices of our neighbouring country, Smith has been pushing for more projects to keep Alberta’s resource-based economy going. That includes pipelines. Ding! There’s part of the answer.
For decades, including Trudeau the Elder’s National Energy Program, and Trudeau the Younger’s Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, resources like Alberta’s tar sands were looked down on as second-rate, stoking the flames of western indignation. Ah, there’s the wedge issue — the West wants in.
All these things can be categorized into one word, and it is not leadership — it is opportunism. Smith, leading one of the wealthiest provinces in the country, can leverage both localised patriotism and a fringe separatist movement to help her politically for the 2027 election. If the pro-Canada side wins, she will have settled the national unity question on the western front. If a binding referendum is chosen, she can ride the wave of Alberta-nationalist sentiment into her first presidency of an independent Alberta. Either side wins the day for Smith. As for the rest of Alberta or Canada, as the likely inaccurately attributed to Marie Antoinette quote says, “let them eat cake.”
Canada’s economy is flaccid at best. Our need to diversify and expand global trading partnerships is immense. We are over-reliant on our largest foreign trading partner, which seems bent on extracting more concessions from Canadian industry. There is rising unemployment, bankruptcies are going up, the need for foreign capital in the domestic economy has never been greater, and Premier Smith has decided now is the best time to play political games?
The economic devastation from 30-plus years of sovereignty talk in Quebec is well known. That province is still recovering from the financial exodus that gutted and diminished Montréal. As the province with the third-highest GDP in the country, Alberta is an important economic driver of Canada. Important does not mean all-dominating. Smith’s political gamesmanship is a dangerous gamble and a needless distraction.
This column was originally published in the May 27, 2026 print edition of the Morrisburg Leader.
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